On 8th June 2020, India, the second most populous country in the world eased its lockdown policy after successfully implementing a nationwide lockdown in the months of April to May.
This lockdown was the biggest lockdown in the history of the world, but at one point, you have to let people out of their houses.
Recently the bold decision was taken to open up the country slowly and steadily.
This decision was highly criticized by the people of India, and understandably so. Easing lockdown restrictions in the middle of a global pandemic that has caused the entire world to halt? Doesn't seem like the smartest move, does it?
Well, before we reach that conclusion, lets look at some statistics.
India has about a 1.3 Billion people.
As I write this, India has completed about 5M tests. Thus out of 1,300M people we have tested about 5M. i.e- approximately 0.3% people. Out of these, 0.13M have tested positive, 9,000 are critical and 7500 have died.
In simpler terms,
out of 1300M people, 0.15M are either critical or unfortunately dead.
Now some might argue that we aren't doing enough tests which is fair but one has to consider that we have a population of 1.3 Billion and it is virtually impossible to test everyone.
India is averaging the highest number of tests per day globally ( approx 120,000) Now, if we continue at this rate, it will take us approximately Thirty Years to finish testing all citizens.
Even if we increase the numbers to 400,000 tests a day (which is extremely difficult) we will still require about 9 years only to finish testing.
In total as of now, India has had about 260,000 cases (recovered + active). Putting this into context, this is less than half of the population of Dharavi (A suburb in Mumbai, India)
I haven't even considered people of the country who throw stones at doctors merely trying to take tests and other such confounding variables.
Now let's look at something else; a problem that seems to have taken a backseat.
The economy.
As many may recall, our economy, despite of being one of the highest growing in the world, was clearly struggling before the Covid-19 pandemic struck. Obviously, this pandemic has not helped matters at all. On the contrary, the economy is falling deeper and deeper into a hole, which is awfully hard to climb back out of.
Unemployment is a major problem in our country, simply because there's just too many people. It has reached a stage that now the educated population is also finding it extremely tough to find jobs.
The Corona virus hasn't helped that either. As we sit comfortably at home , corporations have had to fire people simply because they cannot afford to pay their salaries. We cannot blame the organisation here, nor can we blame the employees, or even the government for that matter.
The problem of unemployment is becoming so prominent that now, people have to choose between either dying of Corona Virus or dying of hunger.
People are willing to go to work just so they can earn their bread and butter, pay off their mortgage or rent, but they are not allowed to.
The economic depression caused by the Corona Virus is by far one of the worst. Maybe even worse than The great depression of 1929 and the economic recession of 2008-09.
People have a higher chance of losing their house, their means of livelihood, their everyday food, than they have of dying of the corona virus.
In these trying times, we have Two choices.
a) Improve our healthcare systems and ease the lockdown causing some more people to contract a disease with a low death rate.
Or
b) Impose a strict lockdown until there is a vaccine and all 1.3 Billion people are vaccinated, and think about the economy later.
I think we have to go with option A, because Corona virus isn't the only thing that is killing people now. The economical recession will start showing its true colours. People will lose their jobs with no one to blame, not even themselves.
Another major problem is the healthcare system. Rural India does not have the infrastructure to support Covid-19 patients and now, Urban healthcare systems will also fail. For this precise reason, the unlocking HAS to be done slowly. We don't want to make too much noise while unlocking or else the beast on the other side may wake.
Our healthcare system along with a lot of other countries' healthcare system is sadly not suited for this, but it is a risk that we have to take.
International trade has already taken a hit. Irrespective, most countries will slow it down further as they want to become self sufficient and less dependent on other countries, making themselves “Aatmanirbhar”.
So in times like these, we have to prioritize our own economy and use our own goods rather than paying exorbitant export duties to other countries. If we are lucky, it will take us 8-10 years to regenerate our economy to what it was pre-covid times (adjusted to inflation and buying power parity) This is the result of 2 months of complete lockdown. Imagine what will happen if we don't slowly open up the country and the economy.
Now people might read this and think that perhaps they could go out for shopping, get their starbucks etc because of the low death rate.
No. More than anything right now, the educated class of people need to be alert.
If you are privileged and have the choice to not leave your house, use your privilege to help the cause. Just because it is allowed, doesn't mean you have to do it.
To sum it all up, I know that this opinion may be controversial and there may have been points I have missed and I would love more than anything to be educated on the topic more. This is something that I feel is important and that everyone needs to know before forming their opinions. I hope I have done justice to both the sides :)
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